weekend

[rolltide]

101-8-87 +10.15 (stake 257.15)

treading water these last few weeks....(santos and atlas bets posted the other day)

Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- CAH was saved last week when Pumas Morelos lost and laid down to a 5-1 home defeat to a very average Toros Neza club and now play last match of the season against title-challenger, Necaxa. Obviously CAH no interest in match just like last week simply happy to stay in 2nd division and seeing out the campaign while Necaxa must win to assure playoffs. Nobody has beaten Necaxa in 2 months, unbeaten in 9, and they have racked up a 16-3-1 home record in last 20 in this league. Must win situation against perhaps the worst team in Ascenso...


Necaxa -1 goal 2u to win 1.6u



Santos vs Monterrey
- teams will play 3x in the next 2 weeks and I'll continually side with the better team, Santos. Monterrey with some nice results on paper but they play poor football and now without 3 important starters. Rayados need match far more than Santos but home team with no injuries or suspensions and will fight for top spot overall. Monterrey a brutal 2 points in 7 away games which is actually the worst out of all 18 teams while Santos are the league's 2nd best home team with 16 points in 7 matches with a +6 GD. Defense is not even close with Santos nearly .5 gpg better than Rayados.


Santos -0.25 2.2u to win 2u



Atlas vs Chivas
- derby of Guadalajara as teams share Jalisco stadium but these teams are going in opposite ways. Chivas need to win or are practically eliminated from playoffs but Atlas is in great form and really tough to score against. Chivas now winless in 4 (0-1-3) with losses to brutal Atlante and Jaguares b2b while Atlas have been defeated just once in 3 months (7-3-1) and can assure their spot in playoffs by beating their rival. Teams are nowhere near even right now and Atlas should be a solid half goal favorite.


Atlas -0.25 2u to win 2u
​

 

[rolltide]

6pm Concacaf u17
- 3rd place match which always merits a bet on goals. both teams have advanced to the u17 world cup so only thing left is the 3rd place medal. Both have shown some nice offense in tourney and weakness at the back and with nothing to play for but fun i'm expecting the kids to dent the net a bit

Canada/Honduras over 2.75 1u to win 1u

 

[rolltide]

Fri night Mexico

20.04 02:30

Jaguares vs Leon
- meaningless match but Leon can't be favorite here even if Jaguares play a few youngsters. Leon living through a terrible season with just a single win and 10 goals in 14 matches and just 2 points and 2 goals scored in 7 road games. Jaguares with b2b wins and always strong at home losing only to title contenders (Atlas, Santos, America) in past 18 in Chiapas. A bit leery to bet on an insignificant match that move from -0.25 to +0.25 but value-wise this has to be a bet. Leon have scored once in last 325' so I'll play against them as fav on road any day.

Jaguares +0.25 2u to win 1.72u

 

[rolltide]

10am england championship

Bolton vs Boro
- Bolton now just a win away from a playoff spot which seemed impossible two months ago but this 9-2-3 streak has been impressive especially at home with 7-0-0 L7. Boro still in a freefall in 2013 where they're sitting with 11 points in 18 matches. Away from home they've not won in 9 (0-1-8) picking up one point and are without mf leadbitter today. L10 matches Bolton top of league with 21 points, Boro bottom of league with 7

Bolton 1.5u to win 1.25u

 

[rolltide]

9:30 Germany

Hannover vs Bayern
- usually goals in this one....h2h seen 6-3-7-3-4-3-3-5 in last 8. #1 and #4 scoring teams in the league playing without pressure

over 2.5 .7u to win .5u

 

[rolltide]

Fri:
+1.6 Necaxa 7-1
+2.0 Santos 1-0
-1.0 Canada 1-1
+0.86 Jaguares 2-2

pending:
Atlas 0.25 2u to win 2u
Bolton 1.5u to win 1.25u
Hannover over 2.5 .7u to win .5u
Sunderland under 2.5 .6u to win .5u

adding Sunderland under. Everton playing great defense allowing 0-0-2-0-0 last 5. Sunderland needed 2 golazos for their 3 netted last week after really creating little. Tight match as each need points and i see 1-2 goals max.

 

[rolltide]

HT bet in spain

Grenada 1u to win 1.45u

- dominant 1H by Grenada (see stats below) who need to win while Valladolid happy mid-table club

• 
  [*=left]Granada
  [*=right]Real Valladolid

14(4)	Shots (on goal)	0(0)
4	Fouls	5
4	Corner kicks	0

 

[rolltide]

HT bet went down despite a 28-2 shots advantage for Granada...

Fri/Sat:
+1.6 Necaxa 7-1
+2.0 Santos 1-0
-1.0 Canada 1-1
+0.86 Jaguares 2-2
+1.25 Bolton 2-1
+0.50 Hannover 1-6
+0.50 Sunderland 1-0
-1.00 Granada 1-1

pending:
Atlas 0.25 2u to win 2u

nothing played yet in MLS. been a strange season with home teams getting great stats (shots, corners, crosses, possession) but terrible results. have a few in mind but a little timid to pull the trigger

 

[rolltide]

RBNY vs NE Revs
- if anyone has followed me over the years you know I look to play against MLS teams playing for 3rd time in a week. While it's never an auto play if the odds move like on this one to -1 goal I give it a go. Red Bulls have fantastic offensive talent and looked good as hell against DC United last weekend but were completely stymied by the KC defense in midweek. Revs don't have much but they do have a solid defense and will come here to put 9 men behind the ball...and the Revs hate counter-attacking teams. Red Bulls hate playing the Revs...freaking hate it! If there's a game the Revs will always give 100% it's against RBNY and when you look at h2h stats this comes through. Only once have the Red Bulls ever beaten the Revs by more than a goal and in the past 21 h2h they've only actually won 3 of 21. Toss in the energy and emotion from bombings in Boston and a big rest advantage (Revs playing 2nd match in 21 days, RBNY 3rd match in 7) and I'll take the goal head start.

NE Revolution +1 2u to win 1.4u

 

[rolltide]

sorry guys i thought revs match was 7:30, not 7pm so will not count that match as official, win or lose. need to give more than 4' for something that isn't HT. my apologies

 

[rolltide]

8:30 MLS

Fire vs Crew
- Chicago are sitting bottom of East but I certainly expect them to climb the table and be a playoff team. Crew just so shaky in defense and now that Chicago has their defensive stalwart back I think they will improve on that side of the ball. Man for man the Fire are, for me, the far better club and line moved crazy to pk -130. Crew are just like RBNY in Toyota Park...they can't win here in last 9 trips. Really tough late loss in Houston for Chicago last week but if they can shake that off they will win tonight

Chicago Fire pk 1.5u to win 1.15u

 

[rolltide]

Sun Austria 10am

Austria vienna vs Rapid vienna
- derby where home team has won just once in 11 matches but Rapid look terrible. I watched their last three matches (US striker Boyd plays for them) and they look horrible even losing at home in cup this week to 3rd division Pasching. Austria still pushing for title and the win today by Red Bull Salzburg should wake them up as lead is down to just 5 points and teams meet on last day of season. Rapid form is so bad...just one win in 2013 and that was at home against a relegation candidate.

Austria Vienna 1u to win .82u

 

[rolltide]

Fri/Sat:
+1.6 Necaxa 7-1
+2.0 Santos 1-0
-1.0 Canada 1-1
+0.86 Jaguares 2-2
+1.25 Bolton 2-1
+0.50 Hannover 1-6
+0.50 Sunderland 1-0
-1.00 Granada 1-1
+2.00 Atlas 1-0
+1.15 Chicago 1-0

YTD: 109-8-89 +18.01 (stake 271.65)

pending:
Austria Vienna 1u to win .82u

more to come tomorrow...

 

[rolltide]

Germany 11:30

Nurnberg vs Furth
- bookies believe Furth will put up one last fight in the derby before they go down but I'll just take the better team who are in decent form. Nurnberg 6 back of Europe and a win today jumps them into 9th. They haven't lost a home match since September and will be happy to send their rivals down to 2nd div for good. Furth actually more road points than home but didn't show much fight last week losing 6-1. Prices make this a bit of a sucker bet so just minimal stake

Nurnberg .55u to win .5u

 

[rolltide]

Monday double United/Elfsborg 1.15u to win 1u

United can win title at home against a team that really never stands a chance against them. Wrote many times about United's record after dropping points in the league and here we go again....10-0-1 L11 after dropping points home or away, 8-0-0 after dropping points on road. People excited about Villa's recent results but United are not Stoke, Reading, or QPR. Villa have beaten United just once since 1995...

Elfsborg were Swedish champs last year and they had a weird thing where they couldn't win on grass, couldn't lose on artificial turf. looks like same thing this year losing both grass games but now back at home on turf where they've lost just once since Oct 2010 in 33 games. Going back to last year Djurg 1-3-8 L12 games and 0-1-5 away.

 

[drpugilist]

Monday double United/Elfsborg 1.15u to win 1u

United can win title at home against a team that really never stands a chance against them. Wrote many times about United's record after dropping points in the league and here we go again....10-0-1 L11 after dropping points home or away, 8-0-0 after dropping points on road. People excited about Villa's recent results but United are not Stoke, Reading, or QPR. Villa have beaten United just once since 1995...

Elfsborg were Swedish champs last year and they had a weird thing where they couldn't win on grass, couldn't lose on artificial turf. looks like same thing this year losing both grass games but now back at home on turf where they've lost just once since Oct 2010 in 33 games. Going back to last year Djurg 1-3-8 L12 games and 0-1-5 away.

is this a 2 tm parlay? i found the elfsborg game but who the hell is united? dc united?

 

[rolltide]

there is only one united and it ain't DC

yes 2 team parlay for monday

 

[drpugilist]

there is only one united and it ain't DC

yes 2 team parlay for monday

thanks.

 

[rolltide]

sunday:
-1.00 Austria 2-2
-0.55 Nurnberg 0-1

Brazil 3pm Paulista

Mirassol vs Linense
- draw suits neither as it would relegate Mirassol and assure Linense don't make the playoffs so both teams should be going all out. Mirassol most goals scored of any team not in Serie A or B and avg 3.4 gpg. 11 of their 18 matches reached 3+, 12 of Linense's 18 reached 3+. Linense have 4 defenders out so a totally disfigured backline and only 1 of last 6 road games failed to see 3 goals. Mirassol conceded in last 9, Linense in last 8.

Mirassol/Linense over 3 1u to win .91u

 

[rolltide]

+0.00 Mirassol 3-0


YTD: 109-9-91 +16.46 (stake 274.20)

United/Elfsborg double tomorrow....